Our process is rules-based. Positions change only when the data confirms a change in regime, and every allocation is tied to a documented risk range.
Approach
The economic cycle and asset returns
Asset returns vary with the direction of economic growth and inflation. Equities, bonds, commodities and real estate each respond differently as those two forces change. Our framework identifies the current regime and the transitions between regimes.
The four regimes
Disinflation
Growth is improving while inflation is slowing.
Reflation
Growth and inflation are both rising.
Stagflation
Growth is slowing while inflation is rising.
Deflation
Growth and inflation are both slowing.
Process principles
- Data discipline. Every input is sourced, dated and checked for staleness before it is used.
- Confirmation before action. We act on confirmed changes in the data, not on forecasts or headlines.
- Staged positioning. Allocation changes are phased in, so that an early read that proves wrong costs little.
- Explicit risk limits. Each position carries a defined range, and the portfolio is measured against it continuously.
Signal rules, position sizing, target weights and trade timing are proprietary and are not published on this site.
Current View
Current regime
The current regime call is published here, free of charge, and dated when issued. It is updated when the data confirms a change.
- Regime
- To be published after confirmation
- Confidence
- To be published after confirmation
- Date of call
- To be published after confirmation
- Last reviewed
- To be published after confirmation
Calls are informational. They do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Track Record
Paper-trading results
The firm is currently validating its process through paper trading. Results will be shown here, labelled as hypothetical.
Client Access
Client portal
Current positions, allocation detail and client reports are available to invited clients only. Access is by invitation.
Client portal coming soon.